Czech Trade Surplus Falls More Than Expected In December

The Czech Republic recorded a faster-than expected fall in merchandise trade surplus in December, preliminary data released by the Czech Statistical Office showed Wednesday.



The trade surplus plunged to CZK6. 4 billion in December from CZK33. 5 billion in November. Economists had forecast a more modest fall to CZK17 billion.



The balance was negatively impacted mainly by a decrease in surplus in machinery and transport equipment and manufactured goods classified chiefly by material, and an increase in deficit in chemicals and related products and beverages and tobacco, data showed.



Export of goods decreased 7. 1 percent on an annual basis to CZK210. 85 billion in December, marking the first year-on-year fall since October 2009. Compared to November, shipments, however, increased a seasonally adjusted 2. 7 percent.



The value of imports dropped 7 percent from a year earlier to CZK204. 42 billion during the month. Sequentially, external purchases increased by 6. 5 percent.



In the whole of 2012, the trade balance was a surplus of CZK310. 8 billion, which was higher by CZK119. 6 billion than that recorded in 2011. Exports and imports increased 6. 4 percent and 2. 4 percent respectively during the year.





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the and billion czk percent surplus december year trade

2013-2-6 11:42

Источник: news.instaforex.com

the and → Результатов: 49 / the and - фото


Polish Manufacturing Sector Expands For Fourth Month


Poland's manufacturing sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month in October, helped mainly by strong growth in export orders, survey data released by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Monday.



The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 53.4 in October from 53.1 in September. The index increased to the highest level since April 2011, and stayed above the no-change 50 mark for the fourth month in a row.



The upturn was driven primarily by a stronger increase in new orders, with export order growth climbing to a two-and-half year high. Export orders rose for the fifth month running in October.



In line with the rise in new business, manufacturing production rose for the fourth straight month, and at a historically strong rate. Manufacturers raised their workforces for the third consecutive month, in order to handle the increased workload.



Input price inflation faced by Polish goods producers rose to a 16-month high in October as firms reported higher prices for paper and rising tax burdens. Meanwhile, output prices decreased for the eleventh straight month.





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2013-11-04 12:42

Brazil's Manufacturing Sector Rebounds In October


Brazil's manufacturing sector expanded for the first time in four months in October, helped by a strong pick up in production, data from a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Friday.



The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, adjusted for seasonal variations, advanced to 50.2 in October from 49.9 in September. Readings above 50 signal growth, and those below indicate decline.



Brazilian companies raised their production levels in October, amid expectations of better economic conditions and forecasts of stronger client demand. Production growth was the quickest since May.



New business inflows stabilized during the month, following three successive months of contraction. Export orders, however, fell at the fastest pace since July.



Meanwhile, manufacturers reduced their workforce numbers further in October, stretching the current sequence of job shedding to seven months.



Elsewhere, a report released by statistical office IBGE today showed that Brazil's industrial production increased 2 percent year-on-year in September, after falling 1.2 percent in August. Economists had forecast a 3 percent growth for October.



Sequentially, seasonally adjusted industrial production moved up 0.7 percent, after staying flat in August. The monthly growth rate was forecast to be 1.3 percent.





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2013-11-01 17:42

German Import Prices Continue To Fall


Germany's import prices decreased for the ninth successive month in September, and the rate of fall matched economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.



The import price index decreased 2.8 percent in September from the same month of last year, marking the ninth fall in a row, the Federal Statistical Office said. The outcome matched economists' forecast. In August, prices had declined 3.4 percent.



Contributing to the decline of the headline index, energy prices fell 6.3 percent annually, and metal costs declined 9.7 percent.



Import prices, excluding petroleum and petroleum products, were lower by 2.3 percent than in September 2012, data showed.



Sequentially, import prices stayed unchanged in September, after rising 0.1 percent in August. Expectations were for a 0.1 percent rise in September.



The statistical office further noted that Germany's export prices decreased 1 percent year-on-year in September, as they did in August. On a month-on-month basis, export prices stayed flat for the second straight month in September.





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2013-10-31 12:42

ECB's Coeure: Eurozone Firms Risk Payment Disruptions On SEPA Migration


Eurozone firms that are delaying the changeover to a new payment system risk disruptions, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Thursday.



The deadline for euro area countries to migrate to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) credit transfer and direct debit schemes is set at February 1, 2014. The SEPA initiative aims to overcome technical, legal and market barriers between countries in order to create a single market for retail payments in euro.



Thirty-three countries in Europe will participate in SEPA. With only 100 days left to go, the changeover process is now entering a critical phase, the central bank said.



In its second report on the SEPA migration process, released on Thursday, the ECB said that many key stakeholders have decided to migrate only in the last quarter of 2013, or even later.



This approach generates operational risks and limits the ability to tackle any issues or unexpected developments that might arise during the changeover period, the central bank cautioned.



"I have said this before and will repeat it: everybody has to be ready on 1 February 2014 or risk disruptions in their individual handling of payment orders," Coeure said.



The ECB report pointed out some of the risks posed by a "big bang" late migration that include capacity issues and bottlenecks on the side of the providers and software vendors at the end of the year. Further, end users may find themselves short of time to adapt to the payment service providers' new standards as well as to test their own systems sufficiently, the report said.



The migration to the SEPA credit transfer scheme is progressing fell, the ECB report said. A few countries in the euro area have already completed the process, while many others are progressing at a swift pace, it added. However, many businesses have delayed the switch to the SEPA direct debt scheme till the last few months before the deadline.



"A successful migration will require considerable effort, so it is important to further strengthen communication and cooperation among key stakeholders and competent authorities at the national level", Coeure said.





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2013-10-24 20:23

Research: US Rating Downgrade Could Still Come Within Six Months

Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:


-US President Obama signed off the short-term deal agreed overnight by the US Congress to immediately re-open and fund the government until 15 January 2014 and raise the debt ceiling until 7 February 2014.


-This implies that we should finally have a read on the September employment and retail sales report over the next four days which will be the next big event for investors. Asian equities were trading positive following US stocks as relief greeted the US compromise, but the USD is trading lower as UST 10y yields slip to 2.65%.


-The short-term nature of the approved bill (hostilities may resume in the new year, budget talks now set for 13 December) may not be enough for agencies like Fitch to drop their 'negative watch' which implies that a downgrade could still come within six months. 

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2013-10-17 12:42

S. Africa August Factory Output Growth Eases More Than Forecast


South Africa's manufacturing production rose at a significantly slower pace in August, and the growth rate was far below economists' forecast, latest data showed Thursday.



Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August from a year earlier, after expanding strongly by 5.5 percent in July, Statistics South Africa said. The expected growth rate was 1.2 percent.



The weakening of the output growth mainly reflected a 25 percent fall in the production of motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment. Production of textiles, clothing, leather and footwear dropped by 0.9 percent.



Meanwhile, production in the food and beverages industry advanced 1.7 percent from August last year, and output of wood, wood products, paper, and publishing and printing articles rose by 6.4 percent.



On a monthly basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production fell sharply by 3.6 percent in August, which was faster than the 2 percent fall economists had forecast.



During the three months ended August, factory production increased 0.2 percent from the preceding three-month period, data showed.





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2013-10-10 17:38

Latvia's Industrial Production Drops 3.5% In August


Latvia's industrial production decreased in August from last year, figures released by the Central Statistical Bureau showed Friday.



Industrial production, on a calendar-adjusted basis, decreased 3.5 percent year-on-year in August, reversing the previous month's 2.1 percent increase. In June, production had decreased by 0.4 percent.



The downturn in overall output was driven mainly by a 2.5 percent fall in manufacturing production, and a 7.9 percent decrease in the production of electricity and gas supply. Meanwhile, mining and quarrying production increased by 0.6 percent.



Sequentially, industrial production decreased a seasonally adjusted 2 percent in August, after gaining 1.7 percent in July, the agency said.





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2013-10-04 17:00

ECB Leaves Key Refi Rate Unchanged At Record Low


The European Central Bank on Wednesday decided to hold fire on rates, as any tightening will be premature and dampen early signs of recovery in the region.



The 23-member rate-setting council left the main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low 0.50 percent for the fifth month. The previous change in rate was in May, when it was lowered by a quarter point.



The bank held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent and the deposit rate was also left unchanged at zero.



The governing council gathered in Paris instead of its usual venue in Frankfurt and the meeting was brought forward to Wednesday as it is a public holiday in Germany on Thursday.



ECB Chief Draghi is set to hold the post meeting press conference at 8.30 am ET.



Although ECB Chief Mario Draghi recently hinted at long-term refinancing operation and measures needed to address rising money market rates, economists see no major announcement later today. The markets expects LTRO only later this year.



Given the doubts over the effectiveness of more LTROs though, other new measures to stimulate lending may eventually be needed to sustain the recovery, said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics.



Money market rates have shown signs of rising recently on talks of Federal Reserve's "tapering" of bond purchases.



Elsewhere, Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta faces a confidence vote today. Italy's political instability and its huge debt burden will weigh on the nation's borrowing costs and will once again trigger talks of ECB's bond buying program.



Last month, the ECB upgraded its 2013 economic outlook for the euro area, to show a 0.4 percent contraction, compared to the 0.6 percent GDP decline estimated in June. However, the growth projection for 2014 was cut to 1 percent from 1.1 percent.



Inflationary pressure remained subdued in the 17-nation bloc, with inflation falling to the lowest since early 2010 in September. Inflation is forecast to average 1.5 percent this year.



The sharp decline in lending to private sector together with low inflation amid nascent recovery is expected to prompt the central bank to keep its interest rates low for an extended period.





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2013-10-02 17:42

KOF Upgrades Swiss Growth Forecast


Switzerland's economic growth will likely accelerate at a faster rate than estimated earlier, supported by stable domestic demand and an improvement in exports as the Eurozone recovery strengthens, revised estimates released by the KOF Economic Institute showed Monday.



The agency forecasts that gross domestic product will grow at a faster rate of 1.9 percent this year than 1 percent in 2012. The revised outlook marks an improvement from the 1.4 percent gain the the firm had predicted earlier.



Further, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.1 percent next year, slightly faster than the 2 percent estimated earlier. Going ahead, growth is seen gathering further momentum, and the economy will expand 2.3 percent in 2015.



According to KOF, an upturn in Switzerland's exports will contribute significantly to the economy in the coming months, shifting the dynamics of growth from domestic demand towards foreign demand. The firms expects Swiss exports to rise 4.2 on average in 2014.



Consumer prices will likely drop further by 0.2 percent this year, but will reverse the falling trend by recording increases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, in 2014 and 2015.



At the same time, unemployment will remain low in the coming months, but will hardly fall any further despite the positive economic developments.



KOF further noted that the economic environment will make it easier for the Swiss National Bank to end its zero interest rate policy and allow it to gradually start raising short-term interest rates again from 2015 onwards.





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2013-09-23 17:23

Aussie Strengthens On Syria Deal, Summers Withdrawal From Fed Chairman Contest


The Australian dollar advanced against other major currencies in Asian deals on Monday, as sentiment improved after the U.S. and Russia reached deal to remove Syria's chemical weapons and Lawrence Summers pulled out from race to Fed's top post.



Summers on Sunday notified President Barack Obama that he was withdrawing his name from consideration to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when the latter's term expires at the end of January.



"I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the administration or ultimately, the interests of the nation's ongoing economic recovery," Summers wrote.



Vice Chair Janet Yellen, who favor a slower reduction of asset purchases, now becomes the clear-cut favorite for the job.



Over the weekend, the U.S. and Russia agreed on a deal to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons by mid-2014.



The framework deal requires Syria to furnish full details of its stockpile within a week. The U.S said that non-compliance, including unauthorized transfer, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in Syria, the UN Security Council should impose measures under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.



The aussie appreciated to 0.9390 against the greenback, highest since June 19. The next resistance for the aussie-greenback pair lies at the 0.95 level. The pair was worth 0.9244 at yesterday's close.



The aussie that ended Friday's trading at 1.1369 against the NZ dollar advanced to a 4-day high of 1.1419. The aussie may face resistance around the 1.15 level.



New Zealand house sales dipped 3.4 percent to 6,548 in August, compared to the previous month, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand said today. That follows the 0.5 percent contraction in July.



The aussie advanced to a 4-day high of 92.76 against the yen, up by 1.2 percent from last week's multi-day low of 91.69. On the upside, the aussie may probably seek resistance at the 93.6 level.



The aussie spiked up to more than 2-month high of 0.9680 against the loonie, which is up from Friday's closing quote of 0.9569. The aussie is likely to test resistance at the 0.98 level.



The aussie reached 1.4236 against the euro, a level unseen since July 24 and an increase of 1 percent from last week's close of 1.4381. The next upside target for the aussie lies at the 1.41 level.



Looking ahead, Eurozone final inflation for August is due in the European session.



The U.S. industrial production and Canada existing home sales for August are set for release in the New York session.





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2013-09-16 09:49

Swiss Franc Weakens Despite Upbeat Q2 GDP Report


The Swiss franc drifted weaker in early European deals on Tuesday despite a report showed that the nation's economic growth in the second quarter slowed less-than that of economists' predictions, largely due to positive contributions from private spending and investment.



According to figures published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), the real gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent sequentially, which was forecast to fall to 0.3 percent from the prior quarter's 0.6 percent growth.



As seen in the previous quarter, household spending gained 0.6 percent. Moreover, investment recovered strongly in the second quarter, up 1.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent. On a yearly basis, economic growth more than doubled to 2.5 percent from 1.2 percent a quarter ago.



Easing concerns over an imminent U.S. strike on Syria and further signs of economic improvement across the globe lifted the risk-associated currencies' values in the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.



The U.S. President Barack Obama's decision to carry out a limited air strike against Syria may be delayed until at least next week as Republican Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said they have more confidence the White House is developing a better strategy to back use of military force.



Equities also rallied after official data indicated another month of reasonably solid growth in Chinese service sector, with the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index easing slightly to 53.9 last month from 54.1 in July.



Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium said retail sales in the U.K. increased at a weaker-than-expected rate in August after an exceptional July. Sales value increased 1.8 percent year-over-year on a like-for-like basis, falling below expectations for 2.4 percent growth but keeping well above the 12-month average.



Elsewhere, the total labor cash earnings in Japan increased for a second consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace, data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare showed today. Total wages increased 0.4 percent year-on-year in July, following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 0.1 percent decrease in May.



At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the benchmark cash rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent, with a possible depreciation of the currency expected to facilitate rebalancing of the economy.



Investors await a slew of reports on U.K. construction activity, producer prices from the euro area and U.S. ISM manufacturing all due out later in the day for further clues on the health of the global economy.



The Swiss franc slipped to 1.4584 against the pound around 2:45 am ET, having extended its strong sell-offs since its failed test of 1.42 resistance on August 28. With the GBP/CHF currency cross is staying well-above its 200-day simple moving average level, the franc is poised to extend its downtrend beyond 1.46 support in the near-term to set its lowest level since June 10.



The franc also fell to a fresh 2-week low of 0.9374 against the US dollar following the GDP numbers, pushing the local unit closer to the pivotal 0.94 area, a level not seen since August 15. The franc has been trading lower since its failure to challenge resistance around the 0.9140/50 area on August 20.



The Switzerland currency dropped to a weekly low of 1.2343 against the euro and a session's low of 106.21 against the yen following the data. The next bearish barrier for the Swiss franc is seen around the 1.2360 against the former and 106.0 against the latter, as CHF/JPY pair is receding well-below from a trend-line resistance of a symmetrical triangle.





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2013-09-03 12:42

Dollar Mixed Ahead Of FOMC Minutes


The US dollar showed mixed performance in early New York deals on Wednesday, ahead of the U.S. FOMC minutes that is expected to provide fresh clues on Fed's stimulus exit strategy.



Traders will look closely at the minutes of its July 30-31 FOMC meeting to be released at 2 pm ET, for clues on the precise timing and scale of any tapering by the Federal Reserve. Many market participants expect the Fed to announce a reduction to its asset purchases at its September 17-18 policy meeting.



Ahead of the minutes, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its existing home sales report for July at 10:00 am ET. Economists expect existing home sales to come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.150 million units.



The Energy Information Administration is due to release its petroleum inventory report for the week ended August 16th at 10:30 am ET.



Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda repeated his earlier remarks that the central bank would not hesitate to provide further stimulus in order to prevent the economy from slipping back into deflation.



The dollar dropped back to below the pivotal 1.57 level against the pound after a gap of more than 2-months, down by more than 0.2 percent from its overnight closing value of 1.5666.



The key support for the greenback is seen around the 1.5750/50 area and the likelihood of breaking this point could sent the U.S. currency to its weakest level against the sterling since February 11.



The dollar, however, advanced against the euro in early New York trading on Wednesday. The greenback climbed to 1.3381 against the common currency, bouncing back from yesterday's fresh multi-month lows of 1.3451.



The dollar rebounded to above 0.92 against the Swiss franc, after having dropped briefly below the key 0.9150 support for the first time after a gap of more than 2-months on Wednesday. If the present bounce persists for the greenback-franc pair, 0.9230 is seen as the next likely resistance level in the near-term.



The greenback traded in narrow ranges against the yen in early deals, moving between a high of 97.55 and a low of 97.37. The broader technical picture shows indecision in the near-term as the pair is swinging back and forth in a descending triangle, but nowhere near the trend-line support/resistance areas.





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2013-08-21 17:42

U.K. Retail Sales Growth Tops Expectations


British retail sales growth accelerated more-than-expected in July as the heatwave boosted food store sales, data showed Thursday.



Including automotive fuel, retail sales volume advanced 1.1 percent from the prior month, following a 0.2 percent rise in June, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales grew for the third month and the rate of growth was expected to rise moderately to 0.7 percent.



Sales that exclude automotive fuel also grew by 1.1 percent, which was faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the previous month. The rate exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.6 percent.



Food store sales surged 2.5 percent, which was partially offset by a 0.3 percent drop in non-food store sales. Non-store retailing rose 1.7 percent in July.



According to a monthly survey carried out by the Confederation of British Industry, retailers expect sales volumes to increase again in the year through August after rising for the first time in five months in July.



Last week, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney assured that policymakers do not intend to hike interest rates from the current 0.50 percent, at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to a threshold of 7 percent.



However, Martin Beck, UK economist at Capital Economics said the resources to sustain growth in sales still look lacking with real pay set to continue falling into next year and households eating into their savings.



The ONS data today showed that all retailing including auto fuel climbed 3 percent annually, the biggest since January 2011. Sales were expected to grow by 2.4 percent after rising 1.9 percent each in June and May.



At the same time, annual growth in sales, excluding auto fuel, came in at 3.1 percent, up from June's 1.8 percent rise and above the 2.7 percent forecast.



At 2.1 percent, the volume of sales in the food sector increased at the fastest pace since April 2011. The amount spent increased 5.7 percent, the highest since September 2011.



The sunny weather boosted sales across a range of products, including food, alcohol, clothing and outdoor items.





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2013-08-15 16:15

Euro Down Against Dollar, Pound As ECB Stands Pat


The euro was trading lower against the dollar and the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank decided to hold its interest rate unchanged at a record of 0.50 percent.



The European Central Bank left its interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive month in August amid some improvement in economic indicators, which is in line with its expectation of a gradual recovery later this year.



The Governing Council led by ECB President Mario Draghi left the main refinancing rate steady at a record low 0.50 percent as expected. The rate was slashed by quarter-basis point in May, the first rate cut in nine months.



The bank also held the marginal lending facility rate at 1 percent, following a 50 basis points cut in May. The zero deposit rate was also left unchanged.



At the same time, the Eurozone manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since July 2011, survey data from Markit Economics showed today. The Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.3 in July, from 48.8 in June and above the flash estimate of 50.1.



As widely expected, the Monetary Policy Committee headed by Mark Carney retained the asset purchase facility at GBP 375 billion and interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.



In the U.K., the seasonally adjusted Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply Purchasing Manager's Index rose more-than-expected to 54.6 in July from a revised reading of 52.9 in June. The index reading was forecast to improve to 52.8 from June's originally estimated level of 52.5.



The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its ultra-loose monetary policy intact, voicing concerns over the recent rise in mortgage rates and low inflation. There was no language in the Fed's post-statement meeting that would suggest that the $85 billion a month asset-purchase program may be scaled back in the next few months.



The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China rose to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in the previous month, while a separate HSBC PMI survey showed factory activity shrank for a third straight month to its lowest level in 11 months. The headline PMI index fell to 47.7 from 48.2 in June.



The U.S. weekly jobless claims report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 326,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 345,000. The decrease surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to edge up to 345,000 from the 343,000 originally reported for the previous week.



The euro slipped to a 2-day low of 0.8678 against the pound around 8:30 am ET, pulling back from Asian session's fresh 4-month high of 0.8768. The near-term support for the euro is seen around the 0.8660 level, at which the 10-day EMA lies in the currency cross.



The euro dropped below the key 1.32 level against the US dollar, falling to a weekly low of 1.3192 by 8:30 am ET. The euro-greenback pair is presently hovering around the 1.32 level with 1.3165 seen as the next likely support level.



The common currency held steady against the Swiss franc and the yen after the ECB rate decision. The euro-franc pair was trading in a range of 1.2310 and 1.2330 and the euro-yen pair was trading between 130.80 and 130.40.





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2013-08-01 17:47

Gold Cuts Losses, Set for Biggest Weekly Gain in Nearly 2 Years



The tapering would support a rise in interest rates and bolster the dollar, reducing gold's attractiveness.
Spot gold touched a low of $1,267.29 an ounce earlier as the dollar's rebound strengthened, briefly curbing its biggest weekly climb since October 2011 to a best performance in 11 weeks. It was trading down 0.4 percent at $1,279.80 by 1349 GMT. Analysts said the metal now faces strong resistance crossing the $1,300 level.
Comex gold futures for August delivery also retreated from a two-and-a-half week high near $1,300 hit in the previous session to $1,278.70 an ounce, down $1.20.
Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust GLD remained unchanged at four-and-a-half year lows of 30.192 million ounces on Thursday. The fund posted the biggest weekly loss of 2.6 percent since the end of April.
Silver fell 1.3 percent to $19.83 an ounce, having reached a three-week high of $20.26 on Thursday. Platinum was down 0.5 percent to $1,397.99 an ounce after hitting a three-week high of $1,414.75 earlier. Palladium slipped 0.1 percent to $715.50 an ounce.

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2013-07-12 20:19

Research: Australia at Moderate Risk in Terms of Overall Leverage

Quotes from Standard Chartered:


-We place Australia in the 'moderate risk' category in terms of overall leverage. As the economy rebalances structurally and the focus turns to domestic consumption and non-resource-led growth, Australia's Achilles' heel is in the household sector. The country's total debt level is low overall compared to other major economies, but the high level and concentration of debt among households is an area of vulnerability. 


-The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced the policy cash rate by 200bps since November 2011 to a low of 2.75%. Easy credit, a booming housing market and a push for greater consumer consumption can be a risky combination if households leverage up excessively. In Australia's case, though, domestic conditions have led to softer demand for debt from businesses and households as they consolidate following high levels of debt earlier.


-Recent data indicates that households are moving in the right direction, taking advantage of current low interest rates to repay their existing debt and deleverage. Further deleveraging from high levels is needed to ensure adequate debt repayment capacity as interest rise in the future, in our view. 

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2013-07-02 18:01

Research: Eur Review

Quotes from RBC Capital Markets:


-EUR: The ECB's Draghi spoke in London, repeating that the risks to growth are still on the downside but he sees a fragile and gradual recovery. He reminded that exit from exceptional monetary policy remains distant and that "we stand ready to act again when needed" but there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve. He says policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. Elsewhere, the FT and La Repubblica quote a report by the Italian Treasury detailing the country's debt transactions for H1 2012 and suggesting the restructuring of eight derivatives contracts with foreign banks during that period could lead to up to EUR8bn in losses for Italy.


-The FT says the restructuring allowed the Tsy to stagger payments to foreign banks (on derivatives with a total notional value of EUR31.7bn) but the Italian govt had to accept more disadvantageous terms in some cases. The Italian Tsy has issued a statement in response saying the contracts were used to hedge against exchange rate/interest rate risks at the time of Italy's entry to the Euro, and carried a cost which is "justified by the need to protect against serious risks". Italian spreads are tighter on the day, largely ignoring the derivatives story in favour of the short-covering mood. 

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2013-06-26 16:47

BoE's Fisher Says British Economy Remains Weak, Downplays Bullish Outlook


UK's economy remains vulnerable to risks despite recent economic data indicating a strong pick up in activity, Bank of England policymaker Paul Fisher said Wednesday. He cautioned that growth will likely remain weak in the near term and the economy will take a longer time to recover than the United States.



Dismissing the recent positive economic data as insignificant, BoE's head of markets noted that it is imperative to keep monetary policy loose for a long period to achieve growth that is in line with trend.



Fisher said that the macroeconomic outlook in the U.K. is not as good as in the U.S, where inventors had belatedly realized that a recovery is possible.



Addressing a gathering of business persons, Fisher said that house prices in the U.K. are too high and urged lenders to pass on their lower funding costs on to clients. Terming the government's Funding for Lending scheme a success, he called for actions conducive to increase the number of transactions in order to raise demand.



In an interview given to The Times earlier the policymaker reserved his comment on his stance on BoE governor Mervyn King's proposal to split the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) into a "good" bank and a "bad" bank. He said that it is possible to privatize the RBS if a two-year program is prepared for the same.





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2013-06-12 19:41

Mexico's Trade Balance Slips To Deficit In April


Mexico's merchandise trade balance turned to a deficit in April as shipments increased at a notably slower rate than imports, data released by statistical office INEGI showed Monday.



The balance of trade was a deficit of $1.23 billion in April, compared to the $419 million surplus recorded a year earlier.



Export of goods increased 6.4 percent annually to $32.86 billion in April. Shipments of non-oil products advanced 7.7 percent from a year earlier, while oil exports decreased by 1.7 percent.



At the same time, merchandise imports climbed 11.8 percent annually to $34.09 billion during the month. The upturn was driven by a 14.3 percent spike in oil imports and an 11.5 percent gain in arrivals of non-oil commodities.



On a monthly basis, the value of exports and imports decreased 2.22 percent and 0.54 percent respectively in April, the agency said.



In the January-April period, exports edged up 0.6 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier, while imports advanced by 4.3 percent.





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2013-05-27 19:21

U.K. House Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 6 Years


U.K. house prices increased the most in six years as widening supply and demand gap lifted asking prices in London, a survey conducted by Hometrack revealed Monday.



House prices in England and Wales advanced 0.4 percent in May from a month ago, which was the biggest increase since May 2007.



In London, prices surged 0.9 percent, followed by a 0.5 percent increase across the South-east. According to the property analysts, demand over the last six months increased 15 percent in London, while supply dropped 0.6 percent.



"The impetus for rising house prices is originating almost exclusively from London and the South East," Director of research at Hometrack, Richard Donnell said.

"Elsewhere, housing market conditions are improving gradually."



A property market survey by Rightmove revealed on May 20 that house prices increased for the fifth consecutive month in May, pushing the average asking prices to a record. Cheap money and more positive mood released pent-up demand.



The 9.1 percent year-to-date increase was the strongest price start to a year since 2004, Rightmove said.



Recent house price data signals that the government's Help to Buy program as well as the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme started to underpin recovery in the property market.



The recent Halifax survey also showed a revival in the residential property market helped by the low levels of mortgage payments in relation to income.





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2013-05-27 12:42

Spain's April Inflation Eases Notably As Estimated


Spain's harmonized inflation fell to 1.5 percent annually in April from 2.6 percent in March, final data from the statistical office INE revealed Tuesday. The annual rate matched flash estimate published on April 29.



At the same time, consumer price inflation eased to 1.4 percent, in line with flash estimate, from 2.4 percent a month ago.



The cost of communication logged the biggest annual fall of 4 percent annually, followed by a 0.7 percent drop in transportation. All other sub-components of CPI registered increases, with health and education rising 13 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.



Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose by a moderate 2.6 percent and clothing and footwear by 0.2 percent.



Month-on-month, the harmonized index of consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent in April. The consumer price index gained 0.4 percent again, as seen in March.





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2013-05-14 12:42

Yen Extends Rally Against Majors


The Japanese currency extended previous session's uptrend across the board in early European deals on Tuesday as a fall in European equities prompted traders to flee from riskier assets to safe-haven yen.



The yen rose to 5-day highs of 154.96 against the pound, 100.97 against the Australian dollar, 83.84 against the NZ dollar, 4-day highs of 101.26 against the US dollar and 100.22 against the Canadian dollar around 3:45 am ET. The Japanese unit also advanced to a session's high of 131.59 against the euro and 106.18 against the Swiss franc around the same time.



On the upside, the yen may find resistance levels at 131.15 against the euro, 100.60 against the greenback, 153.80 against the pound, 105.80 against the Swiss franc, 100.40 against the aussie, 83.15 against the kiwi and 100.0 against the loonie.





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2013-05-14 12:42

Japan Revises Q4 Nominal Gdp Slightly up After Calculation Errors

Japan's Cabinet Office revised nominal gross domestic product, exports, imports and the deflator for the fourth quarter of last year after discovering errors in the way it adjusted the exports and imports for seasonal factors.


The Cabinet Office issued the revisions after Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, published a report on Tuesday saying the data may have been incorrect, according to a government official.


The revisions do not change real GDP, exports or imports for the October-December period last year or other past data, the Cabinet Office said in a statement.


Still, the revisions were due to incorrect spreadsheet entries, the government official said. This could cast doubt on the reliability of the Cabinet Office, which also publishes closely-watched data on capital expenditure and consumer sentiment.


The Cabinet Office corrected nominal seasonally adjusted exports to show they fell 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, more than a 0.3 percent decline previously reported.

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2013-05-08 08:14

UK SME Business Activity Weaker Than Expected, Survey Shows


Business activity at the U.K.'s small and medium-sized enterprises was weaker than expected in the three months to April with both output and new orders declining, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry showed Tuesday.



According to the industry group's latest SME Trends survey, the decrease in total new orders was driven by falls in both domestic and export demand. Output also fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.



Despite the disappointing performance, optimism about the overall business situation has steadied, following three quarters of decline. Optimism about export prospects rose for the first time in a year, the survey report said.



Employment in the sector ticked up in the three months to April, and manufacturers expect a modest increase in staff levels in the coming quarter.



The survey also found that both domestic and export price inflation were broadly the same quarter-on-quarter, but growth in average unit costs was the fastest since October 2011. This squeezed manufacturers' profit margins once again and this pressure on margins are expected to persist in the coming three months.





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2013-05-07 12:33

IMF Urges Pakistan To Take Steps To Stabilize Economy


Officials of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who visited Pakistan last week have asked the government to take steps to stabilize the ailing economy.



The lender said it has not received any official request from the Asian country, which faces a serious balance of payment crisis, for financial aid.



"Pakistan faces difficult economic challenges and we urge the authorities to begin taking the necessary actions to stabilize the economy and lay the groundwork for future growth," IMF Pakistan Mission Chief Jeffrey Franks said.



Pakistan has been expected to seek a rescue package from the IMF after its currency depreciated significantly and foreign exchange reserves plunged.



An aid program valued $11.3 billion was offered by the IMF in 2008 to ease Pakistan's balance of payment crisis, which lapsed in 2011 after the government failed to implement certain fiscal reforms.





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2013-04-25 12:42

UK House Price Sentiment Rebounds In April: Knight Frank


Confidence among British households regarding the value of their homes rebounded in April, ending the downward trend seen for nearly three years, helped mainly by improved optimism regarding the governments' recently launched mortgage scheme, data from a survey by Markit Economics and Knight Frank showed Friday.



The house price sentiment index increased to 50.6 in April from 50 in March. The index moved above the no-change 50 mark - which separates growth from contraction - for the first time in thirty-four months.



"The latest survey suggests the Help to Buy scheme has boosted house price sentiment, alongside a continued improvement in mortgage availability and more concrete signs that current values are on the up," Markit senior economist Tim Moore said.



At the same time, the outlook component of the survey, showed that British households expect the value of their homes will rise over the next 12 months, and at the sharpest rate since June 2010.



The forward-looking indicator climbed to a 34-month high of 62 in April from 58.4 in March, marking the fourth successive increase. Residents of London continued to be the most upbeat about the outlook for prices, followed by those in South East and the East of England, data showed.





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2013-04-19 12:42

Swiss March Producer And Import Prices Fall As Expected


Switzerland's producer and imports prices decreased from last year in March, and the rate of fall matched economists' forecast, latest data from the statistical office showed Tuesday.



The producer and import price index dropped 0.3 percent year-on-year in March, in line with economists' expectations.



The producer price index, which shows the price development of domestically produced products, increased 0.3 percent year-on-year in March, while the import price index dropped by 1.5 percent.



Compared to February, the producer and import price index stayed unchanged during the month. This was in line with economists expectations.



The producer price index was unchanged month-on-month, while the import price index edged down 0.1 percent, data showed.





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2013-04-16 12:42

New Zealand Dollar Overvalued, IMF Says


The New Zealand dollar is currently stronger than would be consistent with medium term fundamentals and "appears to be overvalued," the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Monday.



The gap between domestic and foreign interest rates, and more recently, increased portfolio flows into New Zealand are contributing to the current level of the exchange rate, the Washington-based lender said in the report.



IMF noted that if global monetary policy were to become less stimulatory, the exchange rate would likely depreciate over time. The government's deficit reduction plan also eases upward pressure on the exchange rate, it said.



The report also noted that economic growth may accelerate this year with an increase in construction activity offsetting headwinds from budget deficit reduction, the strong dollar, and the possibly protracted impact of the severe drought.



IMF also noted that the government's fiscal consolidation path strikes a balance between the need to limit both public and external debt increases while containing any adverse impact on economic growth.



Finance Minister Bill English welcomed the IMF statement and said the assessment reflects "the balanced and pragmatic approach the Government had taken with its economic program over the past four years."



IMF expects underlying inflation to increase but remain modest. Persistently high exchange rate is dampening tradable price inflation and wage pressures remains contained, the Fund said.





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2013-03-19 12:42

UK, China Central Banks Plan To Ink Swap Deal


The Bank of England and the People's Bank of China plan to sign a 3-year currency swap deal that facilitate easy finance of trade and investment between the two countries.



In a statement released on Friday, BoE Governor Mervyn King said, "In the unlikely event that a generalised shortage of offshore renminbi liquidity emerges, the Bank will have the capability to provide renminbi liquidity to eligible institutions in the UK."



"Our announcement today marks a significant milestone in constructive bilateral dialogue between the Bank and the PBoC," King said.



The renminbi/sterling currency swap arrangement would support domestic financial stability should market conditions warrant.





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2013-02-22 17:42

S&P Affirms Japan's Credit Ratings


Standard & Poor's on Monday said it is affirming its credit ratings on Japan, citing the sovereign's strong external position and a recovered financial system.



The rating agency affirmed the long- and short-term credit ratings at AA- and A-1+, respectively. The outlook on the long-term ratings remained 'negative.'



S&P said its rating on Japan balances the extremely strong external position, prosperous and diversified economy, and its recovered financial system with a very weak fiscal position, aging demographics, and persistent deflation.



"We believe the measures adopted by the new Shinzo Abe administration at the beginning of its term will be critical if it is to arrest what we see as a prolonged decline in Japan's sovereign credit standing," the rating agency said in a report.



Meanwhile, during a debate in Parliament on Monday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated that if Japan is unable to attain the 2 percent inflation target, there may be a need to revise the law governing the central bank.



He also clarified that the recent policy moves are not directly aimed at weakening the yen, but is just one of the many factors influencing the exchange rate.



The meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the Group of Twenty in Moscow over the weekend abstained from directly criticizing Japan for the recent depreciation of yen. Instead, they supported the policy actions taken by the new government and the Bank of Japan to stimulate economic growth.



At the same time, G20 vowed to refrain from competitive devaluation. "We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes, will resist all forms of protectionism and keep our markets open," the ministers and central bankers said in a statement on Saturday.





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2013-02-18 10:20

Ireland To Record Stronger Growth This Year: IBEC


The Irish economy has stabilized in the second half of last year and is set to grow at a faster pace in 2013, marking the third successive year of reasonably solid growth, the Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC) said Monday.



The IBEC, in its latest quarterly outlook, said that 2013 would mark a turning point for the Irish economy, with GDP growing 1.8 percent on the back of strong domestic demand and exports. The recovery is expected to gain further momentum in 2014.



"Although many Irish households continue to grapple with debt and unemployment, there is growing evidence that 2013 could be a turning point for the domestic economy," IBEC Chief Economist Fergal O'Brien said.



The estimated growth for this year represents an improvement from the 1.2 percent expansion projected for last year, which was supported by another record performance by the export sector. Ireland is the second fastest growing Eurozone economy in 2012.



Driving the recovery, private sector employment improved significantly in the third quarter of last year, and retail sales finished the year on a positive note. At the same time, the housing sector has seen prices stabilizing and housing transactions and new mortgage activity increasing, IBEC said.



The employers' group predicted that Ireland is set to record an annual inflation rate of 1.5 percent this year, which will move up to less than 2 percent in 2014.



At the same time, unemployment is forecast to stabilize and to remain high for some time, while private sector employment will start recovering with a modest growth of 0.4 percent in 2013.



"Exports continue to perform strongly, despite difficult trading conditions. Importantly, we're seeing more businesses successfully making the transition from domestic sales to exports, and progress continues in developing new markets," O'Brien added.





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2013-01-21 16:42

U.K. Inflation Remains Unchanged In December


U.K. inflation remained stable at above 2 percent target in December adding to the central bank's concerns about a fragile economy.



Consumer price inflation was 2.7 percent for the third month in a row, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The rate also came in line with economists' expectations.



Monthly inflation for December was 0.5 percent, which was faster than the 0.2 percent rise in November, and matched economists' expectations.



Housing and utility costs kept inflation high in December, adding 0.26 percentage points. On the other hand, the largest downward pressure came from transport costs.



Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, slowed to 2.4 percent in December from 2.6 percent a month ago.



IHS Global Insight Chief U.K. Economist Howard Archer said increased energy tariffs and higher food prices could push inflation up to 3 percent early in 2013 and keep it there for a while. Depending on food and oil prices, inflation will fall back later this year, he said.



As inflation is likely to stay close to the December rate in the near-term, it will push real pay down further this year, observed Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics.



The Bank of England is set to publish its latest inflation and growth forecasts on February 13. Policymakers maintained quantitative easing at GBP 375 billion last week and the key interest rate at a record low 0.50 percent.



Retail prices gained 3.1 percent from a year ago, while it was forecast to rise 3 percent as seen in November. Likewise, the retail price index excluding mortgage interest payments, climbed 3 percent after rising 2.9 percent in November.



The ONS last week said the current calculation of the Retail Price Index should be continued without major changes so that it would not affect payments on inflation-linked bonds.



A separate report from the ONS showed that factory gate inflation edged up to 2.2 percent in December from 2.1 percent in the previous month. It was forecast to accelerate to 2.4 percent.



Due to a fall in petroleum product prices, the output price index for home sales of manufactured products fell 0.1 percent, which was less than a fall of 0.3 percent in November.



At the same time, input prices gained 0.3 percent on year, reversing last month's 0.1 percent drop. Meanwhile, the index slipped 0.2 percent from a month ago.





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2013-01-15 16:25

Eurozone Industrial Output Falls For Third Month


Eurozone industrial production declined for the third consecutive month in November, confounding expectations for a recovery and signaled a severe downturn during the final quarter of 2012.



Industrial output slipped by 0.3 percent in November from a month ago, when it was down 1 percent, data published by Eurostat showed Monday. The decline was in contrast to a 0.2 percent rise forecast by economists.



On a yearly basis, industrial output decreased 3.7 percent, which was larger than the 3.3 percent decline logged in October and bigger than the expected 3.1 percent drop.



Intermediate goods production dropped at a slower pace of 0.3 percent, while the decline in production of energy accelerated to 1.6 percent. Only output of capital goods grew in November, up by 0.7 percent.



Non-durable consumer goods output declined 1.2 percent, offsetting the previous month's 1.2 percent growth.



Data showed that industrial production declined in sixteen member states and rose in five. Italy registered the biggest annual drop, down 7.6 percent. Meanwhile, Lithuania, Estonia and Malta registered strongest increases.



Capital Economics European Economist Ben May said the industrial sector is unlikely to kick start a recovery in the wider economy. So, expectations for a small decline in Eurozone GDP this year is too optimistic, the economist noted.



According to the purchasing managers' surveys for December, the downturn in the euro area eased, as the rate of contraction in economic output and new business slowed.



In December, the European Central Bank projected euro area GDP growth between -0.9 percent and 0.3 percent in 2013. The central bank expects a gradual recovery late this year.



At the same time, inflation is seen between 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent. At 2.2 percent, the current inflation rate remains above the ECB ceiling.





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2013-01-14 16:34

Australia Retail Sales Post Surprise Fall


Australia's retail sales unexpectedly declined in November amid sharp reduction in sales at department stores and in household goods category, the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.



Retail sales fell 0.1 percent month-on-month to A$21.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in November against expectations for a 0.3 percent growth. This followed a flat reading in October.



Sales of household goods declined 0.9 percent month-on-month in November and trade at department stores slipped 0.4 percent. There was zero growth in food retailing and 0.6 percent drop in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing.



Retail sales in Australia continue to disappoint, following on from a soft report in October, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J. P. Morgan Australia, said. "What little strength that we have seen in the retail report over the past few months has largely been generated by food retailing, which is likely being driven by an increase in prices, rather than a surge in demand."



The economists said real consumption has been very soft during the final three months of the year.



Separately, the statistical office reported that job vacancies in Australia fell to 166,800 in September-November from 179,200 in the three months through August after adjusting for seasonal variations. This was the lowest level since May 2010.



In a report today, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said that new home sales posted a second consecutive monthly improvement in November driven by higher demand for detached houses.



Home sales rose 4.7 percent in November. However, HIA said that sales still remained at quite low levels. In the three months to November, the volume of sales was 15.7 percent lower than in the same period in 2011.





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2013-01-09 09:09

Research: Gbp Continues to be more Tightly correlated With Risk Markets

Quotes from RBS:


-GBP continues to be more tightly correlated with risk markets such as equities than yield spreads. This looks set to continue until such time as investors worry more intently about the UK's twin deficits. We see equities remaining supported by low interest rates and the continued expansion of central bank balance sheets.


-For the Fed, the only two voices on the FOMC that really matter are Yellen and Bernanke, and they look set to continue their dovish stance. Given the recent  historic correlation with equities, this suggests some support for GBP/USD.


-However, while the fiscal cliff has been avoided, discussions around the debt ceiling and spending cuts are short-term risks to market sentiment (USD positive). At the same time, the better cyclical position of the US is seen supporting the USD.

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2013-01-08 12:02

U.K. Inflation Steady At 2.7%


U.K. annual inflation held steady in November at the highest level since May on increases in food and energy bills, official data showed Tuesday.



Consumer price inflation stabilized at 2.7 percent in November, figures from the Office for National Statistics revealed Tuesday. Inflation was at a 34-month low of 2.2 percent in September.



The November rate came in line with economists' expectations, but continues to hover above the 2 percent target. The highest upward impact on inflation was from food prices and utility charges, while fuel prices exerted downward pressure.



Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, also remained unchanged at 2.6 percent in November. The rate was forecast to rise marginally to 2.7 percent.



As inflation is set to stay between 2.5 percent and 3 percent for the best part of the next year due to increases in utility and food prices, the squeeze on households' spending power looks likely to persist throughout 2013, said Samuel Tombs at Capital Economics. Nonetheless, inflation will eventually fall to a very low rate.



IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said he expects consumer price inflation to fall to 2.2 percent by the end of 2013 and finally below 2 percent in 2014.



Month-on-month, consumer prices increased at a pace of 0.2 percent, in line with forecast, but slower than a 0.5 percent rise in October, data showed.



Retail price inflation, at the same time, slowed to 3 percent from 3.2 percent in October. Mortgage interest payments had a downward impact on the annual change.



Excluding mortgage interest payments, retail prices climbed 2.9 percent annually, down from 3.1 percent a month ago. Economists had forecast the annual rate to remain at 3.1 percent.



In a separate communique, the statistical office said factory-gate inflation slowed in November. Output price inflation fell to 2.2 percent in November from 2.6 percent a month ago. It was forecast to ease to 2.5 percent.



Meanwhile, core output price inflation that strips out food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, held steady at 1.4 percent.



Annually, input prices slipped 0.3 percent in November after staying flat in October. On a monthly basis, the input price index edged up 0.1 percent, the same rate as seen in September and October.





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2012-12-18 16:42

Ireland Gets $1.17 Bln IMF Loan Under Bailout Program


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday approved the disbursement of $1.17 billion to Ireland under the bailout program, saying that the country has advanced reforms and continued steadfast policy implementation even as economic growth slowed.



The lender, meanwhile, warned that the Irish government should defer any additional fiscal consolidation to 2015 to protect the recovery, if next year's growth were to disappoint.



The decision followed the completion of the eighth review of Ireland's economic performance under a program supported by a three-year loan arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The latest batch brings total disbursements under the program to $25.49 billion.



The arrangement is part of a financing package amounting to $111.9 billion or EUR 85 billion, which is also supported by the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism and European Financial Stability Facility, bilateral loans from Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and Ireland's own contributions.



The IMF forecasts that Ireland would comfortably meet its 8.6 percent deficit target for 2012 despite health overruns and higher social welfare spending owing to high unemployment.



The economy is expected to record a gradual recovery, with growth of 1.1 percent in 2013 and 2.2 percent in 2014, with public debt expected to peak at 122 percent of GDP in 2013, the IMF said.



"All program targets have been met and a range of fiscal, financial, and structural reforms are in train," IMF's First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair David Lipton said.



"The Medium-Term Fiscal Statement set out a phased path for considerable further fiscal consolidation to bring the budget deficit below 3 percent by 2015."





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2012-12-18 11:12

U.K. Jobless Claims Drop Unexpectedly, Employment At Record High


U.K. claimant count declined unexpectedly in November and employment reached a record through the three months to October, confounding the weakness in economic activity.



Claimant count dropped by 3,000 month-on-month to 1.58 million in November, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists had forecast the figure to rise by 7,000. Claims rose by 6,000 in October, instead of the initially reported 10,100.



At the same time, the claimant count rate held steady at 4.8 percent, as widely expected for November.



Suggesting resilience in the labor market, the number of people out of work declined sharply, while employment increased during the three months ended October.



During the three-month period, there were 2.51 million unemployed people, down 82,000 from May to July, marking the biggest fall since 2001. The jobless rate held at 7.8 percent, matching economists' expectations.



The number of people in work totaled 29.601 million, up 40,000 from the May to July period. The U.K. saw the highest number of people in job since records began in 1971.



According to the Report on Jobs from Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG, permanent placements in the U.K. increased at the fastest pace for 19 months in November. There was also a faster growth in job vacancies due to strong demand from private sector employers.



However, IHS Global Insight's Chief UK economist Howard Archer said there is a real danger that the increase in employment in private sector will not be enough to offset job cuts in the public sector and combat the increasing labor force.



Consequently, Archer said unemployment could trend up gradually to a peak of 2.65 million in late-2013/early-2014, giving an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent.



Moreover, the ONS data showed that total pay including bonus rose only 1.8 percent during three months to October from the corresponding period of last year. At the same time, regular pay, excluding bonuses climbed 1.7 percent.



Consumer price inflation at 2.7 percent in October indicates that real pay fall short to meet rising prices.





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2012-12-12 15:35

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